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Economics and Youth ViolenceCrime, Disadvantage, and Community$
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Richard Rosenfeld, Mark Edberg, Xiangming Fang, and Curtis S. Florence

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780814789308

Published to NYU Press Scholarship Online: March 2016

DOI: 10.18574/nyu/9780814789308.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM NYU Press SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.nyu.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright University of NYU Press Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in NYSO for personal use.date: 28 September 2021

The Net Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime and Violence

The Net Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime and Violence

Chapter:
(p.23) 2 The Net Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime and Violence
Source:
Economics and Youth Violence
Author(s):

Shawn Bushway

Philip J. Cook

Matthew Phillips

Publisher:
NYU Press
DOI:10.18574/nyu/9780814789308.003.0002

This chapter presents new research findings on the relationship between short-run fluctuations in economic conditions and changes in homicide, property crime, and suicide rates over a 76-year period. This analysis reveals that economic downturns result in increases in burglary, robbery, and suicide rates; decreases in motor-vehicle theft; and no significant change in homicide rates. An analysis of age-specific arrest rates since 1963 shows basically the same results, except for robbery, which are not significantly related to changes in age-specific arrests. The analysis of arrests indicates that the “procyclical” pattern (crime decreases coincide with economic downturns) for motor-vehicle theft is specific to offenders under the age of 18; no significant results are found for older age groups. It is hoped that this research can thus be used as a foundation for more ambitious explorations into economic conditions.

Keywords:   economic downturns, homicide, property crime, suicide, age-specific arrests, procyclical pattern, motor-vehicle theft

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