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Economics and Youth ViolenceCrime, Disadvantage, and Community$
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Richard Rosenfeld, Mark Edberg, Xiangming Fang, and Curtis S. Florence

Print publication date: 2013

Print ISBN-13: 9780814789308

Published to NYU Press Scholarship Online: March 2016

DOI: 10.18574/nyu/9780814789308.001.0001

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PRINTED FROM NYU Press SCHOLARSHIP ONLINE (www.nyu.universitypressscholarship.com). (c) Copyright University of NYU Press Press, 2021. All Rights Reserved. An individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a monograph in NYSO for personal use.date: 28 September 2021

The Net Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime and Violence

The Net Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime and Violence

(p.23) 2 The Net Effect of the Business Cycle on Crime and Violence
Economics and Youth Violence

Shawn Bushway

Philip J. Cook

Matthew Phillips

NYU Press

This chapter presents new research findings on the relationship between short-run fluctuations in economic conditions and changes in homicide, property crime, and suicide rates over a 76-year period. This analysis reveals that economic downturns result in increases in burglary, robbery, and suicide rates; decreases in motor-vehicle theft; and no significant change in homicide rates. An analysis of age-specific arrest rates since 1963 shows basically the same results, except for robbery, which are not significantly related to changes in age-specific arrests. The analysis of arrests indicates that the “procyclical” pattern (crime decreases coincide with economic downturns) for motor-vehicle theft is specific to offenders under the age of 18; no significant results are found for older age groups. It is hoped that this research can thus be used as a foundation for more ambitious explorations into economic conditions.

Keywords:   economic downturns, homicide, property crime, suicide, age-specific arrests, procyclical pattern, motor-vehicle theft

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